--- title: US Home Prices Fell From a Year Earlier in October for the First Time Since 2023 description: The median US sale price fell 0.4% in October, the first annual drop since 2023, and only three big metros near New York and Philadelphia favor sellers. author: Darie Nani (Editor-in-Chief) date: 2026-11-14T18:52:53.525Z updated: 2026-11-14T18:52:53.543Z canonical: https://www.sovereignmagazine.com/article/us-home-prices-fall-october-2026-redfin image: https://cdn.nanimediahouse.com/pexels-modern-residential-house-with-a-two-car-garage-and-a-for-sal-7578848.jpg categories: Real Estate content_type: News region: United States publication: Sovereign Magazine schema_type: Article --- The median price of a US home sold in October was $388,634, down 0.4% from a year earlier and the first annual decline since May 2023, [according to Redfin](https://www.redfin.com/news/home-prices-decline-october-2026/), the real estate brokerage owned by Rocket. Two months earlier, prices were still up 2.5% year over year. [Redfin's weekly figures first dipped below last year's level](https://www.sovereignmagazine.com/article/us-home-prices-fall-year-over-year-redfin-october-2026) in late October. Redfin says that with wages growing about 4% a year, even a slight dip in prices can improve affordability. In the same month, only three of the 50 most populous US metro areas were [seller's markets, with fewer sellers than buyers](https://www.redfin.com/news/buyers-vs-sellers-october-2026/): Nassau County, NY, Newark, NJ, and Montgomery County, PA. That ties the lowest count in Redfin's records, which begin in 2016. The only other month with so few was April 2020, when the pandemic froze the housing market. ## Prices Rose 3.3% in the Three Northeast Seller's Markets, Against 0.3% in Buyer's Markets Home-sale prices rose an average of 3.3% year over year across Nassau County, Newark and Montgomery County in October, compared with 0.3% across the 41 buyer's markets. Redfin says little new housing has been built in all three areas, which keeps supply tight, and in the greater New York City area buyers also want homes close to a major job center. New York City, itself a buyer's market, had the same 4.4% rise in prices as Nassau County. Nassau County had 24.7% fewer sellers than buyers in October, down from 28.3% in September, and the gap also narrowed in Newark, from 17.6% to 14.3%, and in Montgomery County, from 20.1% to 12.1%. Milwaukee, a seller's market in September, is now balanced. So is San Francisco, with 6.9% fewer sellers than buyers, even though its median sale price rose 16.8% from a year earlier, the biggest increase since 2018. Redfin attributes San Francisco's rise to AI wealth fueling competition for scarce listings; active listings there were down 7% from a year earlier. "Buyers looking in these pockets of the Northeast should be prepared for a very different experience than buyers elsewhere in the country," said Asad Khan, a senior economist at Redfin. "They may have less room to negotiate, especially on desirable, move-in-ready homes, and could face multiple-offer situations." ## Sellers Outnumbered Buyers by 70.5% Nationwide, a Record for the Sixth Month Running Redfin estimates there were 70.5% more home sellers than buyers across the country in October, the biggest surplus since its estimates begin in 2013. Redfin has revised September's figure to 65.6%. The estimated number of buyers fell 2% from September to 895,752, a record low and the sixth straight monthly decline. The number of sellers rose 0.9% to 1,526,984, the most since March 2020. Mortgage rates averaged 7.33% in October, a three-year high, up from 6.86% in September. "It's a buyer's market, but not many people can afford to buy," said Chen Zhao, Redfin's head of economics. Pending sales fell 3.6% from September, on a seasonally adjusted basis, to their lowest level since 2013 apart from April 2020. Closed sales fell 2.1% to the lowest level since December 2023. Forty-one of the 50 largest metros were buyer's markets, matching September's record, with Miami (195.8% more sellers than buyers), Nashville (159.5%) and Las Vegas (149.9%) at the top. ## Three in Five Homes Sold for Less Than Their Original List Price Sixty-one percent of homes sold in October went for less than their original list price, and 36% had at least one price cut before selling, the highest share in Redfin's records. About 15% of pending sales fell out of contract, the highest share Redfin has recorded outside March and April 2020. Redfin says buyers with more homes to choose from can walk away over inspection problems or a monthly payment higher than they expected. "Buyers are nervous about rates, the economy, and everything they're seeing in the news," said Callie Kimmel, a Redfin Premier agent in Philadelphia. "Move-in ready homes in the most desirable neighborhoods are still competitive; in those cases, sellers have the upper hand," she said. ## Monthly Mortgage Payments Fell to a Six-Week Low in Early November In the four weeks ending Nov. 8, the median sale price was $388,613, down 0.9% year over year and the fourth straight weekly decline, Redfin said in its latest weekly update. The median monthly mortgage payment fell to $2,755 at a 7.18% rate, the lowest in six weeks and down from $2,820 a month earlier. Pending sales were essentially flat from the week before. The daily average mortgage rate dropped to a six-week low of 7.17% last week, then rose again after a [hot inflation report](https://www.sovereignmagazine.com/article/fed-waller-december-rate-hike-half-point). Condo sellers now outnumber condo buyers more than 2 to 1, according to Redfin. ## FAQ **Q: How does Redfin count buyers and sellers?** Sellers are the number of active listings in the MLS, while buyers are an estimate based on Redfin's own data on the typical time from a buyer's first tour to closing, combined with MLS data on active listings and pending sales. Both figures are seasonally adjusted and subject to revision, so a month's reading can change after it is first published, as September's did. **Q: Which large metros are balanced right now?** Six of the 50 largest: Chicago, Boston, Providence, RI, New Brunswick, NJ, Milwaukee and San Francisco. Chicago is the closest to becoming a buyer's market, with 8.1% more sellers than buyers, and New Brunswick had the second-biggest price rise of any large metro in October, 7.7% year over year. **Q: Where did home prices fall most in October?** Austin, TX, where the median sale price dropped 6.5% year over year, followed by Seattle (5.1%) and Nashville (4.9%). Prices still rose in more than half of the 50 most populous metros despite the national decline; Redfin notes that Austin and Nashville are among the biggest buyer's markets in the US and cites an uncertain tech job market in Seattle.