--- title: Fitch Moves France's Outlook to Negative and Sees Debt Reaching 124% of GDP by 2028 description: Fitch keeps France at A+ but moves its outlook to negative and sees debt near 124% of GDP by 2028. France's ratings from Fitch, Moody's, S&P and Scope. author: Dr Marina Nani (Editor-in-Chief) date: 2026-11-03T13:31:10.362Z updated: 2026-11-03T13:31:10.374Z canonical: https://www.sovereignmagazine.com/article/france-credit-rating-fitch-negative-outlook image: https://cdn.nanimediahouse.com/pexels-32776112.webp categories: EU Focus, Economy content_type: News region: France publication: Sovereign Magazine about: - type: Place name: France - type: Organization name: Fitch Ratings description: Credit rating agency that publishes ratings and outlooks on governments, companies and debt. url: https://www.fitchratings.com industry: Credit ratings --- Fitch Ratings revised France's outlook to negative from stable on Friday 30th October and kept the country's credit rating at A+, Reuters reported. A rating outlook shows the direction a rating is likely to take over the next one to two years, so a negative outlook puts a downgrade on the table without making one certain. Fitch pointed to weaker growth, higher borrowing costs and a wider deficit since its last review on 28th August, when it affirmed France at A+ with a stable outlook. It added that a fractured political landscape is making sustained spending cuts and deficit reduction harder to deliver. ## France's Credit Ratings From Fitch, Moody's, S&P and Scope - Fitch: A+, negative outlook - Moody's: Aa3, negative outlook - S&P Global: A+, stable outlook - Scope: A+, stable outlook Moody's kept France at Aa3 with a negative outlook a few days before Fitch acted, saying it expects a deficit-reduction budget for 2027 to be adopted and financing pressures and social tensions to ease in the coming months. Aa3 is one notch above A+, which leaves Fitch, with the lowest grade and a negative outlook, the most cautious of the three largest agencies. Fitch cut France to A+ from AA- in September 2025. ## Debt Heading to 124% of GDP by 2028 Fitch now expects France's government debt to climb to about 124% of GDP by 2028, up from 115.7% in 2025. The agency said the policy debate taking shape before the presidential election has not materially strengthened its confidence that France can cut its deficit for long enough to stabilise its debt. France still has strengths that support its rating, according to Fitch: a large and diversified economy, strong institutions and membership of the euro area. ## French Borrowing Costs at Their Highest Since 2002 French 10-year government bond yields rose above 5.14% in the week before Fitch's decision, their highest level since 2002, and they have climbed faster than those of most other euro area countries. The French economy shrank unexpectedly in the third quarter, and inflation in October reached its highest since late 2023. Economy Minister Roland Lescure blamed an unprecedented mix of external and internal shocks. The election campaign has already produced budget proposals of its own, such as the [gigabyte tax](https://www.sovereignmagazine.com/article/france-gigabyte-tax-election-stunt) we wrote about on 2nd November, and further protests against spending cuts were planned for the weekend after Fitch's decision. ## What Fitch's Negative Outlook Means for French Bonds The rating itself has not changed. France's bonds keep their A+ grade with Fitch, five notches above BBB-, the lowest grade Fitch counts as investment grade. If you hold French government bonds, the price you could sell them for depends on the yield investors demand, and that yield has already risen to its highest in more than two decades. A one-notch downgrade at a later Fitch review would take France to A.