---
title: Canada Is on Track for 36 Million Tonnes of LNG Exports by 2050, Against a Goal of 100 Million
description: S&P Global Energy says Canada is on track for 36 million tonnes of LNG exports by 2050. Reaching Ottawa's 100 million goal needs 2.5 times the investment.
author: Darie Nani (Editor-in-Chief)
date: 2026-11-13T21:15:35.775Z
updated: 2026-11-13T21:15:35.793Z
canonical: https://www.sovereignmagazine.com/article/canada-lng-exports-36-million-tonnes-2050-goal
image: https://cdn.nanimediahouse.com/lng-canada-kitimat-terminal-carrier-575088.webp
categories: Economy
content_type: News
region: Canada
publication: Sovereign Magazine
schema_type: Article
---

Canada is on track to export 36 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas a year by 2050, about a third of the 100 million tonnes the federal government wants, S&P Global Energy estimates in a study released on 12 November.

Closing that gap would take a 2.5-fold increase in upstream and critical infrastructure investment and a tripling of upstream drilling activity, the firm says. By S&P Global Energy's estimate, reaching 100 million tonnes would bring nearly C$1 trillion of investment across the LNG value chain, nearly a quarter of a million jobs a year and C$888 billion added to GDP to 2050, and would make Canada the world's third-largest LNG exporter.

Energy and Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson told a parliamentary committee in February: "If we deliver, as we hope proponents would deliver, up to 100 million tonnes per annum, that would make us one of the largest suppliers of LNG in the world." Canada was the world's sixth-largest LNG exporter at the time, CBC reported, and Hodgson said countries such as Japan, South Korea, China and India want Canadian gas. Canada and the EU have since [agreed to study exporting Canadian LNG to Europe](https://www.sovereignmagazine.com/article/canada-eu-historic-alliance-associate-member).

In March, CBC reported that LNG Canada's second phase and the proposed Ksi Lisims floating facility, both then referred to the federal Major Projects Office, could bring Canada's export capacity, including LNG Canada's operating first phase, to up to 40 million tonnes a year, with another five million tonnes from the Woodfibre and Cedar LNG projects under construction in British Columbia. Even with all of them at full capacity, Canada would be less than halfway to the target. S&P Global Energy says Canada does not have enough projects in development ahead of a final investment decision to reach 100 million tonnes.

## LNG Canada's Phase 2 Will Double Capacity at Kitimat to 28 Million Tonnes a Year

On 28 September the largest project in that tally went ahead, when Shell, PETRONAS, PetroChina, Mitsubishi Corporation and KOGAS [took a final investment decision on the second phase of LNG Canada](https://www.lngcanada.ca/news/lng-canada-announces-phase-2-final-investment-decision/) in Kitimat, British Columbia, on the traditional territory of the Haisla Nation. "With FID secured, Phase 2 will double LNG Canada's capacity from 14 to 28 million tonnes a year," said Chris Cooper, LNG Canada's president and chief executive. Hodgson called the decision "a massive vote of confidence in Canada".

## More Than 600 Million Tonnes of LNG Projects Are Competing for 176 Million Tonnes of Market Opportunity to 2050

Worldwide, LNG projects totalling more than 600 million tonnes are in various stages of development, competing for 176 million tonnes of market opportunity to 2050, according to S&P Global Energy. The past two years brought an unprecedented wave of LNG investment, and the firm expects global supply to grow 50% over the next five years and the market opportunity to be greatly reduced after 2027, until the early 2030s.

Daniel Yergin, S&P Global's vice chairman, said Canada "will need to move at speed to improve its position to meet its ambitions and potential." Kevin Birn, S&P Global Energy's chief Canadian energy analyst, said: "Long-term investment certainty and further cost and timeline reductions are critical to attract capital away from competing countries which have a head start in building the next wave of projects."

> "Canada's current position in world energy falls well short of its competitive strengths in terms of natural resources and geography."
> — Daniel Yergin, Vice Chairman, S&P Global

## Canadian Pipelines Take 27 Months Longer to Permit Than Pipelines in Texas

Pipeline permitting in Canada takes 27 months longer than in Texas, and Canadian pipelines cost 160% more to build, S&P Global Energy estimates. Permitting alone takes up more than 50% of total pipeline project development in Canada.

Over the past two decades Canada has made nine significant changes to its royalty and income tax terms for upstream projects, the firm counts, against two in the United States, one in Australia and four in Argentina.

Running every LNG facility on electricity could require 3.1 GW of additional power capacity by 2050, which would mean adding net capacity in British Columbia at double the pace of the last decade. Quebec has enough capacity projected, according to the study, but new projects in British Columbia could need a major transmission build-out.

"Risk sharing and government support, streamlined permitting, indigenous partnerships and durable policy would be difference-makers that put Canada on the path to becoming the world's third largest LNG exporter," Birn said. The Calgary Chamber of Commerce supported the research; S&P Global says the analysis and conclusions are its own and that the study makes no policy recommendations.

## S&P Global Energy Puts Canada's Low-Cost Gas Resource at 375 Trillion Cubic Feet

S&P Global Energy estimates Canada has 375 trillion cubic feet of identified gas that is economic to produce below US$3 per million British thermal units, and that the Montney basin alone could largely supply the extra 9 billion cubic feet a day of feedgas a 100 million tonne industry would need. The firm puts the greenhouse gas intensity of Canadian LNG 55% below similar pre-FID projects elsewhere.

Natural gas liquids make up 24% of a typical gas well's production but up to half of its economic value. S&P Global Energy estimates Canadian NGL production would nearly triple through 2050, adding C$300 billion in value, and that condensate at its 2040 peak could support 1.2 million barrels a day of oil sands supply.

## FAQ

**Q: Which Canadian LNG projects are operating or under construction?**
LNG Canada in Kitimat, the country's first export terminal, began operating in June last year, and its partners approved a second phase on 28 September. Woodfibre LNG and Cedar LNG are under construction in British Columbia, and Ksi Lisims, a floating facility proposed with the Nisga'a Nation near Gingolx, was referred to the federal Major Projects Office, CBC reported.

**Q: What are natural gas liquids used for?**
Natural gas liquids are ethane, propane, butane and condensate, produced alongside natural gas. Ethane, propane and butane are used for home heating, chemicals production and exports, and condensate is the primary source of the diluent used in oil sands production, according to S&P Global Energy.